Even in moderation, consumption of ultra-processed foods is linked with measurable increases in risk for chronic diseases, according to research from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Processed meat, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), and trans fatty acids (TFAs) were associated with an increased disease risk, such as type 2 diabetes, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and colorectal cancer.
Multiple previous studies have linked ultra-processed foods, particularly processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages, and trans fatty acids, with elevated chronic disease risks. Estimates suggest that diets high in processed meat contributed to nearly 300,000 deaths worldwide in 2021, while diets rich in sugar-sweetened beverages and trans fats accounted for millions of disability-adjusted life years.
Processed meats preserved through smoking, curing or chemical additives often contain compounds such as N-nitroso agents, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and heterocyclic amines—compounds implicated in tumor development.
Sugar-sweetened beverages remain the primary dietary source of added sugars in many populations, contributing to weight gain, cardiovascular disease and diabetes risk. Artificial trans fats, created to solidify vegetable oils, have been associated with systemic inflammation and coronary heart disease.
Clarity about dose-response relationships has been limited by variability in data availability and inconsistent findings across studies.
In the study, “Health effects associated with consumption of processed meat, sugar-sweetened beverages and trans fatty acids: a Burden of Proof study,” published in Nature Medicine, researchers applied Burden of Proof meta-regression methods to evaluate the associations between processed meat, sugar-sweetened beverages and trans fatty acids and the risk of type 2 diabetes, ischemic heart disease and colorectal cancer.
Analyses drew on large prospective cohorts and case-control data.
For processed meat and type 2 diabetes, the analysis included 15 cohort studies and one nested case-control study, representing 1,115,885 participants and 64,607 diabetes events. Processed meat and IHD analyses incorporated 11 cohort studies with 1,173,821 participants and 31,549 IHD events.
For colorectal cancer, 18 cohort studies contributed data on 2,678,052 participants and 30,259 cancer events. Analyses of sugar-sweetened beverages included 19 studies comprising 563,444 participants and 39,505 diabetes events, and eight studies with 961,176 participants and 24,542 IHD events. Trans fat and IHD analyses incorporated six cohort studies with 226,509 participants and 12,548 events.
Processed meat consumption between 0.6 grams per day and 57 grams per day was associated with at least an 11% higher average risk of type 2 diabetes compared with no consumption. Relative risk of developing type 2 diabetes was estimated at 1.30 at a daily intake of 50 grams.
Consumption between 0.78 grams per day and 55 grams per day was associated with a 7% higher average risk of colorectal cancer. Relative risk of colorectal cancer was estimated at 1.26 at 50 grams per day intake. Relative risk of IHD was estimated at 1.15 at 50 grams per day intake.
Sugar-sweetened beverage intake between 1.5 grams per day and 390 grams per day was associated with at least an 8% higher average risk of type 2 diabetes.
Relative risk of type 2 diabetes was estimated at 1.20 at 250 grams per day consumption. Intake between 0 grams per day and 365 grams per day was associated with a 2% higher average risk of IHD. Relative risk of IHD was estimated at 1.07 at 250 grams per day consumption.
Trans fatty acid consumption between 0.25% and 2.56% of daily energy intake was associated with at least a 3% higher average risk of IHD. Relative risk of IHD was estimated at 1.11 at 1% daily energy intake.
Risk increased continuously at every level of consumption, with the steepest increases occurring at low habitual intake, approximately equivalent to one serving or less daily.
Researchers conclude that these conservative estimates support existing public-health recommendations urging reductions in consumption of processed meat, sugar-sweetened beverages and industrial trans fats.
Given the global burden of diabetes, heart disease and colorectal cancer, the findings reinforce WHO initiatives including bans on industrial trans fats and taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages. The study authors note that even low habitual intake levels could pose measurable risks.
Written for you by our author Justin Jackson,
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More information:
Demewoz Haile et al, Health effects associated with consumption of processed meat, sugar-sweetened beverages and trans fatty acids: a Burden of Proof study, Nature Medicine (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41591-025-03775-8
Wanglong Gou et al, Updating the evidence on ultra-processed foods and health, Nature Medicine (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41591-025-03782-9
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